Structural and Reduced-Form Credit Models

Which credit model uses default intensity to estimate the probability of default over time?

No. Structural models seek to explain the why, not the when.

Bingo! Reduced-form credit models use default intensity to estimate when the company will default on its debt. Therefore, reduced-form credit models are focused on the timeframe of default.

Nice try, but no. The Black-Scholes-Merton model is an options model that can be applied to credit risk. It's based upon the underlying hitting the strike price, so the model is focused on why that occurs.

Structural models

Reduced-form credit models

Black-Scholes-Merton models